UPDATE 5 - September Airline Results Extravaganza

Here's a quick summary on all the airline results that I have seen so far:

AirTran
Sept RPM=950 Million (+11.6%) Load Factor=61.8 % (-9.4) ASM=1.5 Billion (+28.6%)
YTD RPM=10.4 Billion (+24.7%) Load Factor=74.1 % (-.2) ASM=14.0 Billion (+25.0%)

Alaska
Sept RPM=1.4 Billion (+5.9%) Load Factor=73.6% (+1.2) ASM=1.9 Billion (+4.2%)
YTD RPM=13.6 Billion (+6.0%) Load Factor=77.5% (+.9) ASM=17.5 Billion (+4.7%)

American (without American Eagle)
Sept RPM=10.6 Billion (-1.4%) Load Factor=75.5% (-.7) ASM=14.0 Billion (-.5%)
YTD RPM=106.2 Billion (+1.1%) Load Factor=80.5% (+1.8) ASM=131.8 Billion (-1.1%)

ATA (Scheduled Service)
Sept RPM=299.0 Million (-37.6%) Load Factor=74.5 % (+3.6) ASM=400.0 Million (-40.6%)
YTD RPM=3.1 Billion (-43.4%) Load Factor=80.0 % (+10.2) ASM=3.8 Billion (-50.6%)

Continental (Mainline and Regional)
Sept RPM=6.9 Billion (+11.5%) Load Factor=78.6% (+1.2) ASM=8.8 Billion (+9.9%)
YTD RPM=67.7 Billion (12.6%) Load Factor=81.0% (+1.7) ASM=83.6 Billion (+10.2%)

Delta
Sept RPM=9.1 Billion (-3.4%) Load Factor=74.6% (+1.5) ASM=12.2 Billion (-5.4%)
YTD RPM=88.2 Billion (-4.5%) Load Factor=78.8% (+1.5) ASM=112.0 Billion (-6.2%)

Frontier
Sept RPM=616.5 Million (+11.3%) Load Factor=67.6% (-3.4) ASM=911.6 Million (+17.0%)
YTD RPM=6.4 Billion (+17.7%) Load Factor=77.8% (+1.4) ASM=8.2 Billion (+15.7%)

Hawaiian
Sept RPM=548.8 Million (-4.0%) Load Factor=83.1% (-6.0) ASM=660.3 Million (+2.9%)
YTD RPM=5.1 Billion (+2.1%) Load Factor=86.8% (+0.1) ASM=5.9 Billion (+2.0%)

JetBlue
Sept RPM=1.6 Billion (+8.2%) Load Factor=72.6% (-5.1) ASM=2.3 Billion (+15.8%)
YTD RPM=17.5 Billion (+16.5%) Load Factor=78.8% (+1.5) ASM=21.3 Billion (+22.9%)

Northwest
Sept RPM=6.2 Billion (-5.5%) Load Factor=81.3% (+1.3) ASM=7.6 Billion (-7.1%)
YTD RPM=59.1 Billion (-6.5%) Load Factor=84.7% (+3.0) ASM=69.8 Billion (-9.8%)

Republic
Sept RPM=534,827(+49.0%) Load Factor=66.9% (+1.9) ASM=799,018(+44.7%)
YTD RPM=1.8 Million (+56.8%) Load Factor=72.9% (+4.7) ASM=2.5 Million (+46.5%)

Spirit
Sept RPM=299.0 Million (+15.0%) Load Factor=70.0% (-2.4) ASM=427.0 Million (+18.8%)
YTD RPM=3.4 Billion (-4.0%) Load Factor=72.4% (-1.0) ASM=4.3 Billion (-2.7%)

Southwest (System)
Sept RPM=5.2 Billion (+9.8%) Load Factor=67.2%(-.2) ASM=7.7 Billion (+10.1%)
YTD RPM=50.9 Billion (+12.9%) Load Factor=74.0% (+2.9) ASM=68.7 Billion (+8.4%)

United (System)
Sept RPM=9.3 Billion (+1.3%) Load Factor=79.5%(-.7) ASM=11.6 Billion (+2.3%)
YTD RPM=89.0 Billion (+3.5%) Load Factor=82.8% (+.9) ASM=107.6 Billion (+2.3%)

US Airways (Combined US Airways, America West and Regional)
Sept RPM=4.8 Billion (-4.8%) Load Factor=72.2 % (-.5) ASM=6.6 Billion (-4.2%)
YTD RPM=48.1 Billion (-6.8%) Load Factor=78.8 % (+2.1) ASM=61.1 Billion (-9.3%)

Update 1 - Added JetBlue
Update 2 - Added Frontier and Spirit
Update 3 - Added Southwest and alphabetized
Update 4 - Added Northwest
Update 5 - Added Hawaiian

AirTran Delays Aircraft Delivery (But Look at the Capacity Plans)

AirTran's announcement yesterday that they would delay delivery of 8 Boeing 737-700s has a Jekyll and Hyde quality about it. Delaying delivery on aircraft in the face of what they see as softening demand this year makes sense. Dr. Jekyll is making perfect sense. Mr. Hyde lurks further down in the outlook AirTran has for growth in 2007.

After the delays, AirTran expects to take delivery of 14 planes in 2007 and 15 planes in 2008. This represents expected capacity growth of 19 percent to 20 percent in 2007, and 9 percent to 11 percent in 2008, the company said.

This growth is far more agressive than the 5-7% growth the Continental Airlines is predicting over the coming years. I know I keep banging this drum but widespread aggressive growth, i.e. increases in capacity, in 2007 could endanger to the recovery of the airlines industry. I will have to watch for more airlines to make forward looking statements on their plans for 2007. Airlines need to carefully measure their capacity against demand or Mr. Hyde will run amok.

AirTran Backs Off Third Quarter Estimates

AirTran had a pretty good 2nd quarter (ok it was the best one in their entier 13 year existance) and they put up record numbers in August. Despite all of that they are revising their numbers down for the 3rd quarter of this year. Even more, they are looking to reduce capacity in 2007-2008 based on what they view as softening demand. This seems to be on par with expectations that the industry, as a whole, needs to keep capacity constrained to maintain some leverage on pricing.
All of this makes Northwest Airlines recent recall of their entire flight attendant work force seem a little out of place to me.

NEWS: AirTran Grabs a Little Midway

AirTran is taking up some of the slack created by ATA's departure from Chicago-Midway airport adding service to both Minneapolis-St. Paul and Boston. You will recall that Southwest recently used its advantage with ATA to grab up another 4 gates at Midway in preparation for their own expansion in that market. Southwest's advantage lies in the fact that they own about 30% of ATA via a loan to keep the airline afloat in bankruptcy.